Afghanistan in focus

Conn Hallinan of Foreign Policy in Focus writes on Afghanistan:

"There is No Way for NATO to Win This War"
Afghanistan: A River Running Backward

By CONN HALLINAN

When historians look back on the war in Afghanistan, they may well point to last December's battle for Musa Qala, a scruffy town in the country's northern Helmand Province, as a turning point. ...

"The number of districts in which the Taliban operates exploded last year," says John McCreary, former senior intelligence analyst for the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff. "This is the first year they have managed to sustain over 100 attacks per month for a whole year since they started to climb back. One hundred attacks per month used to be a surge figure. Now it is the new norm."

In fact the number of attacks are averaging 548 a month. According to the United Nations, it is too risky to send aid teams into one fifth of the country. "The river appears to be running backward," one analyst told the Financial Times ...

When the U.S. or NATO finally go on the offensive, the coalition's lack of troops means they must rely on artillery and air power, which translates into a greater number of civilian casualties. Louise Arbour, the UN's High Commissioner for Human Rights, says that civilian casualties caused by military activity has reached "alarming levels" this past year. ...

In a blow to the current push for more troops, the Netherlands decided it would withdraw all its soldiers by 2010. " The Dutch decision," says the German newspaper Der Spiegel, "may set a precedent, raising concerns among NATO military leaders over a possible domino effect. If only one major NATO country yields to domestic pressure and decides to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan, it could set off an avalanche." ...

"The Taliban is growing and creating new alliances not because its sectarian religious practices have become popular, but because it is the only available umbrella for national liberation," says Pakistani historian and political commentator Tariq Ali. "As the British and the Soviets discovered to their cost in the preceding two centuries, Afghans never like being occupied." ...

"There is no way for NATO to win this war," says Tariq Ali bluntly. ... (link)