Sunday, May 4, 2008

Security worsens as insurgency moves north

While US/NATO officials claim success in defeating the Taliban, even the recent State Department terrorism report puts a much less rosy gloss on the matter:

Country Reports on Terrorism
Chapter 2 -- Country Reports: South and Central Asia Overview

Despite progress in Afghanistan, the Taliban-led insurgency remained strong and resilient in the South and East. Although the insurgency absorbed heavy combat and leadership losses, its ability to recruit foot soldiers from its core base of rural Pashtuns remained undiminished. (link)
The day before the above report was released, the Economist observed that "Recent suggestions from some Western officials that the Taliban are crumbling look to be exaggerated. "

An Inter Press Service report sums up the disastrous security situation:
Bid to Slay Karzai Exposes Security Mess
By Anand Gopal

Apr 28 (IPS) A Kabul-based security specialist released a study suggesting that insurgent attacks jumped by almost 40 percent in the first months of 2008 compared to the analogous period last year ...

There were 991 "security incidents" -- acts of violence that originated from the Taliban or anti-government elements, in the first 13 weeks of 2008, according to Sami Kovanen, a security specialist with the security firm Vigilant Strategic Services Afghanistan. The increasing violence -- there were 717 such attacks during the first 13 weeks of 2007 -- signals the growing operational capabilities of the Taliban, Kovanen says.

... Often the attacks target police checkpoints and other elements of the Afghan security forces, but in recent weeks many coalition soldiers have come under fire -- 47 coalition soldiers have died this year, most during the last month.

Kovanen's data suggest that violence has risen most sharply in areas previously known for a relative amount of security -- the central and western regions. The central area around Kabul, including Wardak, Logar and Parwan provinces, has seen a 70 percent jump in insurgent attacks, and violence in the western area around Herat has jumped by 40 percent. ...

Critics say that the provincial reconstruction teams (PRTs), combinations of aid agencies and militaries that are aimed at reconstruction, only serve to conflate the aid agencies with NATO forces in the eyes of the local population. "The PRTs and NGOs shouldn't go together," Anton Van Engelen, an independent consultant, says. "Most NGOs are realising they don't want anything to do with them."

ISAF officials have long maintained that the insurgents will increasingly turn to suicide attacks because of their inability to defeat coalition forces in conventional battles. ...

However, the ANSO report claims that suicide attacks have actually gone down in recent months. "The data demonstrates," the report says, "a move away from suicide strikes which are at their lowest level in 15 months."

... The guerrillas are focusing on attacking police outposts and planting increasingly effective roadside bombs. Moreover, Kovanen suggests that the Taliban is splitting its resources -- many suicide fighters are focusing their efforts in Pakistan, where the rate of suicide attacks has skyrocketed.

The increasing violence points to a deeper trend, say analysts from the European Council of Foreign Relations, a Brussels-based think tank. "A swift and successful end to the conflict," according to the agency's latest report, "is out of reach; even optimistic scenarios foresee an international presence in Afghanistan for years to come. ...

Violence has increased every year since the U.S.-led invasion in 2001, and many experts say that the insurgency can continue unabated into the indefinite future. Barring a negotiated settlement, "they can keep going like this forever," Kovanen says, "and eventually they can reach their goal by wearing out the international forces. ... (link)
Anand Gopal has more:
Afghanistan's insurgency spreading north
By Anand Gopal

KABUL, April 29 - The attempted assassination of President Hamid Karzai Sunday came as the latest sign of a trend worrying Western officials: that the insurgency is spreading from the Taliban stronghold of the south to the central and northern regions of the country. ...

The insurgency in Afghanistan has not been "contained," Director of National Intelligence Michael McConnell testified before a Senate subcommittee in February. "It's been sustained in the south, it's grown a bit in the east, and what we've seen are elements of it spread to the west and the north." ...

On the sprawling, serene campus of Kabul University, where the nation sends many of its best and brightest, the Taliban has reached an unprecedented level of influence, students say.

Young men gather in campus dorm rooms and watch slickly produced DVDs of the latest insurgent attacks. ...

"Many of us have contact with Taliban leadership," says one student and Taliban member, who asked to be called Naqibullah. "I talk to commanders based in the south maybe once a week on the phone." ...

In the northern province of Baghlan, insurgent group Hizb-i-Islami is growing in presence, says Antonio Giustozzi, a researcher at the London School of Economics and an expert on the Afghan insurgency. ...

The group has received a surge of funding in the last year, says Mr. Giustozzi ...

In the first quarter of 2007 there was just one insurgent attack in Badghis, but the guerrillas have already launched 17 in the first three months of this year. ... (link)
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